Published in The Australian, November 1 2001

THE new century hasn't been kind to computer magazines. Following rapid growth in the late 1990s, fuelled by emerging interest in the internet and reader value-adds such as cover CDs, circulation has flattened.

After remaining static in the 18 months to December 2000, circulation of the four major titles fell by 5 per cent in the first half of this year. While that's not a major collapse, it set off clear warning bells for a market segment that had seen typical circulation grow from about 30,000 in 1995 to 60,000 in 2000.

But what's behind the drop? While there are several factors, the most critical is the collapse of the personal computer market itself. From January to June this year, the total market size for PCs declined for the first time, and that trend is expected to continue. Magazines such as Australian PC Authority, which concentrates heavily on hardware reviews, have been the most affected, but all titles have suffered.

As a result, computer magazine editors have been paying close attention to the launch of Microsoft's newest operating system, Windows XP. Many PC manufacturers, and Microsoft itself, are praying that XP, launched with a rumoured $2 billion marketing campaign last week, will stimulate the lagging tech economy.

That in turn would lead to more people contemplating PC purchases, as well as more ad sales. "Without exception, PC magazine publishers and editors have indicated ... that they are expecting, or at least hoping, the operating system will kick-start the market for Christmas, upping their page counts and starting the new year with a bit of a bang," Philip Sim, managing director of technology media consultancy ITJourno, wrote in a recent commentary.

It's too early to tell if that will happen, but it seems that local magazines are so sure XP is the key to future success that their ability to review the software impartially may be in question. The editor of one Australian title recently told staff that the magazine would not publish any data that showed that XP had inferior performance to its predecessors. Others haven't gone that far, but the message that XP is an essential upgrade, even if you have to buy expensive new hardware to run it, seems universal in recent editions. The fact that XP itself can cost up to $675, or that cheaper alternatives are available, doesn't rate much of a mention.

Australian Personal Computer devotes 25 pages and its front cover to the product (by way of contrast, the proposed merger of computing giants Hewlett-Packard and Compaq is only mentioned in a 60-word brief).

Sister Australian Consolidated Press title Australian PC User is slightly more cautious, devoting two pages to performance problems with XP and providing a list of reasons not to upgrade. However, the magazine also includes nine pages of information on the mechanics of moving to XP, and editor Glenn Rees acknowledges that XP could provide "a vital fillip for the industry".

Australian PC World, which has the most stable circulation of the four major titles, offers an eight-page "special report" in its November edition. "If you can't afford to upgrade then it would be in your best interest to forget about Windows XP," Kieran McNamee writes in the report.

Such an attitude seems to be a luxury for most computer magazines. "Like Windows 95, XP is a significant upgrade that is going to require mightier processing power," notes Sim. "But today that's something to be celebrated, not reviled, because it's likely to encourage people to buy new machines or upgrade their existing boxes."

Disclosure: the writer is a former editor-in-chief of Australian Personal Computer.