It may be all the rage, but if a high-powered industry consortium has its way, DVD's days may be numbered.

Published in The Bulletin, March 12 2002

With Australian market penetration of more than 20% and more than 2.5 million players sold since its introduction in 1996, DVD has been widely proclaimed as the most successful consumer electronics product launch yet. But its days may already be numbered. With one eye firmly on the 80% who have yet to succumb, a consortium of nine electronics giants -- Hitachi, LG, Matsushita, Philips, Pioneer, Samsung, Sharp, Sony and Thomson -- two weeks ago unveiled the next generation of DVD technology.

Known as Blu-ray (because it uses a blue laser, rather than the red laser found in DVD and CD players), the new format boasts an impressive basic storage capacity of 27G, almost six times as much as current DVD discs. That extra capacity would enable the storage of high-definition television images, something that strains current DVD technology.

However, the key attraction of Blu-ray is that Japan's major manufacturers have agreed on a single standard for recording. Adoption of DVD recorders has been patchy, largely because of the existence of competing standards from different developers. The inability to record easily favourite TV shows or watch home movies is widely viewed as a factor halting the further uptake of DVD.

Blu-ray's sting may take some time to be felt. Standards for using the format on PCs are still being ironed out, the first machines using the technology aren't expected on the market until 2003, and mass-market adoption is likely to come several years after that. More importantly, manufacturers are being coy about whether they'll make Blu-ray machines compatible with existing DVD discs. While that would ensure a strong library of titles for the system, many film studios would welcome the opportunity to sell their titles again to consumers on a brand new format, just as they have done with DVD.