Demand for pen-input tablet PCs has left markets cold, writes Angus Kidman

Published in AustralianIT, April 8 2003

For years, everywhere Microsoft founder Bill Gates went he talked up the virtues of what he called the Tablet PC. This was not a complex proposal. Like many before him, Gates believed that using a pen for an input device rather than a keyboard would open up entirely new markets for PCs.

He authorised the expenditure of tens of millions of dollars to develop software designed to accept pen input.

Last November, Gates could finally show that the tablet PC wasn't just vapourware.

Surrounded by the usual assortment of Microsoft marketing executives, as well as actor Rob Lowe (who is, apparently, a "multidimensional information worker"), Gates launched his baby onto the marketplace.

"Anyone who spends time in meetings and wants to take notes, anybody who wants to read material in a natural way where you just hold the device in your hands will want this product. Anybody who annotates things and wants to share those things will want this product," he predicted.

So far, the marketplace doesn't seem sure if it wants the product or not.

According to IDC, just 70,000 tablet PCs were sold worldwide during the fourth quarter of 2002.

By way of comparison, 6.8 million desktop and notebook PCs were sold in the Asia-Pacific region alone during the same period. But observers believe the devices may yet be a success, at least in specific niche sectors.

IDC itself noted that "demand has been surprisingly strong among early-adopter consumers in countries such as Singapore and Australia".

For the whole of 2003, Gartner Dataquest is predicting sales will reach 425,000.

Around 20 vendors are expected to be selling tablet PCs by the end of the year.

In the local market, Acer Fujitsu, HP, Toshiba and ViewSonic are among those who have launched systems.

Tablet PCs may start showing up in boardrooms, but they're unlikely to appear in lounge rooms for a while.

In its current incarnation, the tablet PC is simply not a mass market proposition.

Consumers (and many businesses) are not going to pay $4000 and up for a tablet system when the equivalently powered notebook can be had for substantially less.

A more natural market may be in specific industries such as healthcare -- it's easy to imagine a nurse ticking off a list of patient treatments on a tablet PC screen.

However, it's even easier to imagine a nurse doing the same task on a lower-spec handheld, which will only cost the hospital around $1000 and will slip easily into a pocket, rather than sitting on a bedside table where it will inevitably get damaged by a rogue bedpan.

The basic technology will also need to evolve.

Early reviews have suggested that the handwriting recognition on tablet PCs, while better than disastrous earlier attempts such as Apple's Newton, is not yet effective enough for many general applications.

Microsoft has foresworn compromise systems, such as the Graffiti input system used on Palm OS devices, maintaining that its handwriting recognition systems (which sit atop a custom version of Windows XP) will continue to improve.

One way in which tablet systems are likely to leak into the marketplace is in combined tablet/notebook units.

On these, the notebook screen can be twisted over the keyboard to produce a tablet effect.

Gartner estimates 35 per cent of all notebooks will use this system by 2007.

Improved support for tablets in the next version of Office may also encourage further adoption.

Another area where tablets may enjoy a natural advantage is in Asian language input.

A pen-based system can cope far better with languages such as Chinese, Korean and Japanese, where using keyboards remains an awkward proposition.